Over the weekend, COVID-19 surpassed heart disease as the top killer in the U.S. and 1 million more cases were recorded in just 5 days. Yet while 73.4% of Americans continue to have a high degree of concern about their friends or family contracting the virus, those with similar concerns about personally contracting the virus declined to 66.7%. Nevertheless, Americans largely see the last month of 2020 as one in which the pandemic situation is going to worsen. In fact, Americans’ comfort going out for leisure activities even within their own community has declined for the last 3 weeks.
Although there has not been a return to strong feelings that travel activities are generally unsafe, the current state of the pandemic has eroded Americans’ confidence that travel can be done safely. Half feel not very or not at all confident that they can travel safely in the current environment, while just 23.9% are confident or very confident—down from nearly one third six weeks ago.
The gloominess combined with more clarity on timelines for production and distribution appear to have muted some of the strong hope initially felt about a COVID vaccine. After Pfizer’s announcement ahead of the week of November 23rd, 58.1% said vaccine developments made them more optimistic about life returning to normal (or near normal) in the next six months. This week the percent that still feels this way dropped to 49.1%. Similarly, the percent who say the recent vaccine developments have made them more optimistic that they can travel safely in the next six months has declined to 46.0% from 52.5% three weeks ago.
Americans’ current sentiment has some impact on marketability for travel. Those in a travel readiness state of mind dropped to 52.5% from 55.5% in the last week, and those that can be motivated by discounts and price cuts to travel in the near-term dropped to 36.0% after hitting 40.3% two weeks ago. However, Americans also still demonstrate openness to travel messaging. Those that agree that they have lost their interest in travel for the time being dropped to 43.1% from a high of 50.0% last week. And after consistently declining for a month, the proportion excited to learn about new, exciting travel experiences or destinations to visit improved to 44.2%.
As we look to the quickly approaching new year and what travel may look like, it’s helpful to start with a look back on the travel that occurred throughout 2020, when less was known about, and Americans were less experienced with, the virus. About 80% of American travelers took at least one trip in 2020, with an average of 2.9 leisure trips reported. Looking at the months Americans report taking trips in, the months with the highest rates of travel post onset of the coronavirus—and after the initial shutdowns—were June and July. Lesser but relatively consistent numbers of Americans traveled in the Fall months. Fully one-in-five American travelers (20.4%) took a trip by air since the pandemic began. But Americans’ response to surges in cases is a reminder about what the travel industry will contend with until a vaccine is widely available. Nearly 47% of American travelers said they cancelled an upcoming trip specifically because of this recent surge we are in.
As so many feel their 2021 will be an improvement over their 2020, this week we asked American travelers what they anticipate about their travel in the new year. As detailed in the infographic below, Americans plan on taking about 3 leisure trips on average (approximately 1 trip less than pre-pandemic)—primarily to cities, small towns and beaches. One-in-five of these travelers anticipate at least one of these trips will be international. Well over a third of Americans whose job allows them to telecommute say they are likely to take a “workcation” in 2021. Meanwhile, 29.4% of Americans who travel with school-aged children say they are likely to take a “schoolcation.” Over 47% say they will prioritize leisure travel in their personal budget. In terms of the actual experiences they will prioritize, spending time with loved ones, getting away from crowds, enjoying nature, going to new places they haven’t been before, excitement and energy, as well as budget travel will be top. Hotels will still be the most common lodging type.
As to the most popular destinations Americans plan to visit in 2021, Florida, New York, Las Vegas and California look to remain tourism powerhouses. Of course, those in different generations and regions of the country have various travel tastes, with attraction to destinations like Hawaii, Colorado and Yellowstone National Park rising depending on age and residence.
